Downstream battery producers' just-in-time procurement provided limited support for lead price movements [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures:

Last Friday, LME lead opened at $1,986/mt, fluctuating around the daily moving average during Asian trading hours. Entering European trading hours, LME lead first declined then rebounded, hitting a low of $1,982.5/mt. As LME lead inventory continued to drop for several consecutive days, bears reduced positions, pushing LME lead to rebound and touch a high of $1,998/mt, finally closing at $1,997/mt, up 0.45%.

On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE lead 2510 contract opened at 16,875 yuan/mt, reaching an early high of 16,880 yuan/mt. Due to increased bearish positions, SHFE lead plunged to a low of 16,780 yuan/mt before rebounding slightly toward the close, finally settling at 16,870 yuan/mt, up 0.12%.

On the macro front:

A US federal appeals court ruled Trump's tariff measures illegal. Trump called it "wrong" and stressed that existing tariffs remain in effect. The US core PCE price index for July rose 2.9% year-on-year, hitting a new high since February 2025 and meeting expectations. Traders continued to bet on a US Fed interest rate cut in September. China's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS): The manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC): Continuously consolidate the stabilizing and improving momentum of the capital market, and constantly enhance its attractiveness and inclusiveness. Jiujiang Huijin Metal Materials Co., Ltd. significantly increased its holdings of stock ETFs, with the market value of its holdings reaching 1.28 trillion yuan by the end of June.

:

Last Friday morning, SHFE lead dipped before rebounding. Suppliers adjusted quotations accordingly, with some shifting to discounts, while downstream enterprises remained cautious with low inquiry enthusiasm. During this period, primary lead smelters' ex-works quotations showed slight divergence—some suppliers refused to budge on prices, while others maintained discounted sales. Main producing regions quoted premiums of -50~+50 yuan/mt against the SMM #1 lead average price ex-works. For secondary lead, reduced supply coupled with weaker lead prices dampened smelters' sales sentiment, leading to fewer quotations and thin spot market transactions.

Inventory: On August 29, LME lead inventory fell by 1,450 mt to 261,050 mt. As of August 28, SMM's lead ingot social inventory across five regions totaled 67,100 mt, down by around 1,200 mt from August 25.

Today's lead price forecast:

For primary lead, transportation restrictions in North China are expected to be lifted this week, likely increasing spot market supply. Spot transactions are anticipated to remain at discounts. For secondary lead, smelter maintenance impacts are rising, and coupled with losses, smelters' firm pricing sentiment persists. Some regions may still see price inversions (secondary lead higher than primary lead). On the demand side, lead-acid battery demand remains sluggish, with producers operating based on sales and purchasing raw materials only as needed, offering limited support to lead prices.

Data Source Statement: Data other than publicly available information is derived from public information, market exchanges, and the SMM internal database model, processed by SMM for reference only and does not constitute decision-making advice.